And the winner is......YOU!!

In the latest issue of Chance magazine.....wait, you forgot to pick up Chance this month? Chance, the magazine devoted to statistics and all things Gaussian?? Errrr.....I bet your face is red right now! Chance??!

ANYHOW, Oscar fever is afoot and temperatures are rising, at least in the elite ranks of Chance magazine. Chance (I will assume you have said magazine at hand now) published a statistical analysis that predicts Oscar winners! With data culled from the show's entire history, Iain Pardoe from the University of E! Entertainment uses a 'discrete-choice model' to predict past and future winners. The results are lame: only 69% accuracy. And I really doubt that Best Fim Editing will go to Star Jones. The problem, I beleive, is that Pardoe uses only two predictors for his analysis: previous Academy Award nominations and current Golden Globe wins. This might explain his less-than- awesome predictive powers (God has at least an overall prediction accuracy of 80%).

There are, of course, other methods of Oscar devination. The Carpetbagger's method employs Ven diagrams and the fabulous!-ness of the nominated role (gay, lesbain, nancy boys, post-ops, etc) and is notable for its use of circles. I prefer, alternatively, to gauge the level of retardation. Think I am being...ummm...retarded? I respectfully and tastefully submit to you previous winners/nominees:

Dustin Hoffman -- Rain Man
Joan Cusack -- Working Girl (for actor, not role)
Leonardo DiCaprio -- What's Eating Gilbert Grape
Tom Hanks -- Forrest Gump
Jodie Foster -- Nell
Brad Pitt -- 12 Monkeys
Mira Sorvino -- Mighty Aphrodite
Billy Bob Thornton -- Sling Blade
Sean Penn -- I Am Sam
Jamie Foxx -- Ray (R. Charles was way too happy)

Still going to place your money with 69% boy? I warned you! Come Oscar-time, don't come running to me all teary-eyed and bicycle helmeted!